Waitemata Burning: Narrowing Down the Auckland Outbreak
So the Auckland Coronavirus Outbreak has been steadily increasing in case numbers. Not exploding, Melbourne-style, but definitely increasing. The question then becomes… how is this happening, and where is this happening? Well, I’m pleased you asked that. Because I do think we can mine the available data for clues.
Consider the following graphs:
It is quite clear: the epicentre of the outbreak has moved away from Counties-Manukau (South Auckland), and towards Waitemata (West Auckland). Specifically, the South Auckland cases have largely levelled off, while West Auckland has been surging since early October. Well and good, and I’d also note that early October coincided with Brian Tamaki’s infamous protest rally – perhaps Destiny Church has more followers in the West?
Narrowing things down further… the cases winding up in hospital. Now, of the hospitals in the Waitemata DHB region, Waitakere Hospital is quite small. North Shore Hospital is the larger one in the region. Yet the cases are winding up in Auckland Hospital, and not the North Shore. That suggests the Waitemata cases are concentrated in the areas closer to Auckland Hospital than North Shore. Potentially around New Lynn?
If it is New Lynn, however, it’s worth noting that the ethnicity of the cases do not look like the suburb at large. There are too many Maori cases, and too few Asian… which suggests that the disease remains confined to a very specific subset of the community, many of whom happen to be unvaccinated. The increase is thus probably not running through the wider community. Not yet anyway, which suggests that lockdown compliance is still keeping a lid on this thing.
Anyway, I myself can report that as of yesterday, I am fully vaccinated. Yay. 🙂